The PLG Playbook: Predicting Upsell & Churn!

Using headcount data to create an Account Health score.

05/01/25
8 min

Overview

What if you could unlock $2M in expansion revenue just by using better data?
By leveraging People Data Labs’ headcount data, companies are identifying churn risks earlier, uncovering expansion opportunities, and taking proactive actions that drive real revenue growth.
If you're focused on customer retention, expansion, or revenue growth, this recipe will show you how to use PDL’s company dataset to track hiring trends, detect churn signals, and pinpoint high-growth accounts that are primed for upsell or cross-sell opportunities.

Data Ingredients

PDL Products
Company Dataset (Enrichment API or Data License)

Key Fields
Person:
Recent Executive changes
Company:
Employee Growth and Churn Rates
Employee Count Breakdowns

Inputs

• List of customer accounts (with website or social profile)
• Definitions for your ICP or target personas

Outputs

• Company health signals that can be used to improve account forecasting and trigger expansion/retention plays.

Directions

Step 1: Gather your customer account list
Create a list of all the customer accounts you would like to enrich. Make sure you have at least a website URL or social media profile URL (e.g., LinkedIn) for each account in your list.

Step 2: Access the Company dataset
Setup your PDL account and access the Company dataset through our Enrichment API or bulk data files. For this recipe, we recommend the Company Enrichment API, which allows you to easily augment your customer account list with headcount and executive movement signals.

Step 3: Match your customer list against the Company Dataset
Use the website or social media URL inputs from Step 1 to find matching records in the Company Dataset.

Step 4: Append enriched information
Every customer matched to PDL Company record will contain a comprehensive set of fields including headcount breakdowns, growth and churn rates, and recent executive changes (among many other fields). Append the fields you are interested in back into your customer list.

Step 5: Update your forecasting with headcount insights
Incorporate updated company headcount data to refine your account forecasting. See the Chef’s Recommendations section below for some powerful strategies to better predict expansion opportunities, churn risks, and overall account health using headcount trends.

Step 6: Set Up Sales Plays Based on Headcount Triggers
Once you’ve integrated headcount data into your forecasting - or if you already have a strong understanding of account trends - you can use the same insights to trigger targeted sales plays. See the Chef’s Recommendations section below for key plays you can activate based on specific headcount-driven events.

Chef's Recommendations

Using Salesforce?

If your team primarily works in Salesforce, then we recommend trying out our easy-to-use Salesforce Integration. This integration allows you to bulk enrich records right in Salesforce without any additional import/export requirements. Additionally, it can even keep your records automatically enriched with up-to-date PDL data based on your own customizable preferences.

Forecasting Strategies

• Model headcount growth of target ICPs within customer accounts
  Track department-level growth trends (e.g., if sales headcount is expanding, it may indicate increased investment in sales tools).

• Estimate department size to total headcount ratio for segmentation & forecasting
  If your ideal customers typically have a 10% sales-to-total-headcount ratio, you can use this to estimate potential market size within an account.

• Correlate headcount trends with past expansion or churn patterns
  Analyze historical data to see if certain headcount shifts (e.g., a 15% decline in engineering) signal contraction risks.

• Create weighted account health scores using headcount data
  Factor in headcount growth, executive departures, and department expansions to refine customer health scores in your CRM.

• Predict budget changes based on company-wide headcount trends
  If the total company headcount is shrinking, budgets may tighten - helping forecast renewal risks earlier.

Triggers and Sales Plays Examples

Headcount Growth Play

• Trigger: 3-month headcount growth trend
• Condition: If headcount has increased by 20%+ in a key department
• Play: Notify the account owner to engage with new decision-makers and position an upsell
• Tool Alignment: Salesforce workflow triggers an alert in Slack & updates the account health score

Headcount Churn Play

• Trigger: 3-month headcount churn trend
• Condition: If headcount has declined by more than X% in a key department
• Play: Notify the account owner of potential churn risk and prompt them to engage stakeholders with a retention play
• Tool Alignment: Salesforce workflow triggers an alert in Slack & updates the account health score

Recent Executive Change Play

• Trigger: Key executive hire or departure within a target department
• Condition: If the executive is in a relevant department (e.g., Sales, Engineering, Procurement)
• Play: Notify the account owner to engage with the new executive (if hired) or reinforce value with remaining stakeholders (if departed)
• Tool Alignment: Salesforce triggers an alert, and a task is created for the account owner

Still need help?

• Check out our developer documentation for details on data schemas, stats, code examples and more!
• Check out our help desk / reach out to us at support@peopledatalabs.com
• Reach out to your customer success representative (Enterprise customers)